Originally Posted by RedsManRick
This. Objectively speaking, he deserves what he's asking to be paid. As the market goes, he can reasonably expect a big contract. But the Reds should not commit such a big chunk of payroll to a middle infielder on the wrong side of the 30. Will he age well? He very well might. But history shows us that when middle infielders (2B in particular) start to slow down, it tends to happen quickly. And on top of that, you're extending him on the back of what is almost assuredly his career year. If you can give him a deal that prices in some regression, great. But if you have to pay him as if he's definitely going to be a 4+ win player for the next 4 or 5 years, the deal is almost all downside risk.
If he wants to add a year or two, I'm open to that. But if he's looking to cash in, to make that deal that guarantees a life of comfort for his extended family in perpetuity (which he has said he is) the Reds should not be the ones to take on that risk.
You're right. However, the slow down doesn't typically happen until the player reaches his mid-thirties. Phillips' full-time comps include Grich (age 34: 4.4 wins; age 36: 2.9 wins), Davey Johnson (hit the wall at 30), Jeff Kent (age 37: 4.4 wins), Joe Gordon (age 34: 3.6 wins), Bret Boone (age 35: 7.1 wins). Also other similar players include Ray Durham (age 34: 3.9 wins), Ryne Sandberg (age 36: 3.8 wins), Frank White (age 35: 3.4 wins), Willie Randolph (age 36: 4.4 wins).
Definitely seems to me that the investment, unless he's asking for something outrageous, would be well worth it.