Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?
Originally Posted by Dan
You're right. However, the slow down doesn't typically happen until the player reaches his mid-thirties. Phillips' full-time comps include Grich (age 34: 4.4 wins; age 36: 2.9 wins), Davey Johnson (hit the wall at 30), Jeff Kent (age 37: 4.4 wins), Joe Gordon (age 34: 3.6 wins), Bret Boone (age 35: 7.1 wins). Also other similar players include Ray Durham (age 34: 3.9 wins), Ryne Sandberg (age 36: 3.8 wins), Frank White (age 35: 3.4 wins), Willie Randolph (age 36: 4.4 wins).
Definitely seems to me that the investment, unless he's asking for something outrageous, would be well worth it.
I'm curious what those guys were at their peaks. The aging curve for Phillips looks a lot different if you view him as a 6 win player right now than a 4 win player. I would also argue that he doesn't have any elite skill like Kent's power or Randolph's contact that is likely to stay an asset til the end. He's more Ryne Sandberg or Robbie Alomar lite. And with those guys, the age hits them all over. They lose the ability to catch up to heat at the same time they lose a step in the field.
Obviously these are all just hypotheticals. From my perspective though, as I said above, the possibility that he ages like Jeff Kent is not worth the possibility that he ages like Davey Johnson, even if the former is much more likely.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.