Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP
I guess there's always the chance that BA could just be toast, but I think it's more likely that he reverts back to his 2009-10 form. Its very tough to perform when trying to recover from a mono-like illness that saps your strength reserves without time off & rest. Bronson IMO, should have been shutdown and put on a program to regain his strength - if not coming out of Spring Training, then some time in May or June.
I will be interested to see what an offseason of rest will do for him. I would deal Arroyo right now for the payflex, but if he comes out and performs as he did in 2009-10, he will certainly be worht having around - especially as the number four starter.
- The more time passes since the Latos deal, the more I like it. I think he is just what this rotation needed.
- Cueto may not have K'd as many batters per 9 as in previous years, but I saw a lot of maturity from him last year. I've got a feeling that he is just now reaching his prime.
- the thing I like most about Mike Leake is his head for the game. He doesn't have to rely on the speed of his fastball and has a very solid idea of what he needs to do to be successful for a kid so young with little MiL experience.
- There are a lot of teams out there right now with far worse options than Homer Bailey and Travis Wood for their 5th spot in the rotation. I've always been a big fan of Homer's and I'm hoping this is the year he stays healthy and puts it all together. if he does, he can challenge Leake and posible even Cueto as the second or third best starter in the rotation.
- Wood is nice to have as a lefty option, but he needs consistencey. He can look almost dominant at times and then go three of four outings where he looks putrid. If it would fill a hole elsewhere with a piece I really liked though, I would consider dangling either travis or Homer in a deal.
- I kind of expect to see 2012 as a wasted year for Aroldis Chapmanif they convert him to a starter. With no starts in winter ball, they will need to start stretching him out in spring training and then probably 8-10 starts in Louisville. By the time I think he may be ready for the Reds rotation, it may be almost time to shut him down due to innings worked. I'm not sure that he will be automatically successful in his conversion to starter and it is more than just a matter of stretching out his arm.
Chapman started before at Louisville with mixed results. You have to think that prolonged starting will draw down the top speed on AC's heater, but just how much remains to be seen. I also wonder how returning to the starting rotation will affect Chapman's control (one of the factors he had an issues with the first go round a starter.
I've seen that even if Aroldis reaches just one-third of his potential, that he Latos and Cueto would make for a dominant 1-2-3 in the rotation. That may or may not be true, but I will say that I am highly doubt it will come to be true at any point in 2012 for any significant stretch of the season. Chapman has the portential to become a TOR starter in time, but I don't see it happening until 2013 atthe earliest.
I love Aroldis and I am not trying to bring him down - just trying to be realistic. If I'm Walt though and I'm trying to go all-in to capitalize on having Joey Votto for two more years. I have to consider leaving Chapman in the bull pen where I'm retty sure he can dominate or I consider packaging him in a deal for maybe a closer and an outfielder (or even another starter) that I really like.
As far as rotational depth goes, I look at some of the second or even third-tier FA starters that are out there and try to sign a couple for spots in the Louisville rotation just in case. It was nice to have Dontrelle down there last year and I wish he was there this year (or in the Reds pen).