Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP
Latos is a 4 win upgrade only if you think his true talent level is 4 wins better than Volquez. Last season, Volquez was essentially replacement level.
I think it's reasonable that Volquez could be a true talent 4.3 FIP guy over 180 innings arm (i.e. like a poor man's Jhoulys Chacin circa 2011). That's roughly a 2 win pitcher. For Latos to be 4 wins better than that, he's got to be a true talent 2.60 FIP arm over like 220 innings.
I'm very positive about the trade but I'm not sure his addition is as big of an impact as intuition suggests. Obviously alot of the calculus depends upon Volquez and estimating his true skill level at this point is a bit like reading chicken intestines. I'm pretty confident we know what we're getting with Latos barring injury issues (a 4 win pitcher). For comparison, Cueto was a 2.8 win pitcher last season and the next best pitcher in the rotation only posted a 1.5 WAR season (Leake/Bailey).
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