Originally Posted by Edd Roush
So a guy with a plus fastball and the best slider in the system (Tim Crabbe) doesn't have a chance to be a TOR arm? That's news to me. IMO, if he masters a third pitch, he should be a top-ten prospect in our entire system.
Crabbe has way more results than Garrett and is WAY closer to doing something in the bigs than Garrett. I think Crabbe has way more value, not that I'm not excited to have Garrett in the system.
It'll be great if he can master a third pitch, but as of right now, it takes some serious stuff for a starter to be TOR with only a fastball and a slider (see Chapman's struggles in AAA). Given that Crabbe isn't reportedly a master of control either, I just don't see it translating to a full-season ERA below 3.50 against the best in the world. It's a long way from having the best slider in a pitching-anemic system to dominating with it in the majors.
If he can add an above-average third pitch and stick around as a starter in AA, then yes, he'll be in my top 10. And if he can make the reliever (perhaps closer) transition and still dominate (don't forget, it was difficult with Boxberger at first), he'll be top 15.
Garrett's a big unknown, but he was considered a possible supplemental pick before the draft, got that kind of money, and as a 6'6'' basketball-playing lefty is about as big of an arm as you can get. He's new to the game, so looking at his stuff right now isn't necessarily the best benchmark, but he already has a plus fastball in the mid-90's and promising secondary stuff with the athleticism to take advantage of it.