Originally Posted by The DARK
It'll be great if he can master a third pitch, but as of right now, it takes some serious stuff for a starter to be TOR with only a fastball and a slider (see Chapman's struggles in AAA). Given that Crabbe isn't reportedly a master of control either, I just don't see it translating to a full-season ERA below 3.50 against the best in the world. It's a long way from having the best slider in a pitching-anemic system to dominating with it in the majors.
If he can add an above-average third pitch and stick around as a starter in AA, then yes, he'll be in my top 10. And if he can make the reliever (perhaps closer) transition and still dominate (don't forget, it was difficult with Boxberger at first), he'll be top 15.
Garrett's a big unknown, but he was considered a possible supplemental pick before the draft, got that kind of money, and as a 6'6'' basketball-playing lefty is about as big of an arm as you can get. He's new to the game, so looking at his stuff right now isn't necessarily the best benchmark, but he already has a plus fastball in the mid-90's and promising secondary stuff with the athleticism to take advantage of it.
Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning here. You admit that Crabbe has two plus pitches and as doug said, it is a major league plus slider right now, but you go on to vote for a guy who has one plus pitch and no minor league results. Don't get me wrong, Garrett has a ton of upside. That being said, I kind of expect him to spend a full six years in the minor leagues developing. Crabbe already has three years of development behind him. Crabbe's control has improved his walk rate and now stands to have average control with a well-above average K rate. He also has had good home run suppression numbers throughout his career.
I expect to see Crabbe in the Pensacola rotation all year and I expect him to keep a strong K rate and hopefully see further improvement with his BB numbers. I hope Mario Soto spends some time with him so he can add a good change up along with his plus fastball and plus slider.