Originally Posted by Edd Roush
Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning here. You admit that Crabbe has two plus pitches and as doug said, it is a major league plus slider right now, but you go on to vote for a guy who has one plus pitch and no minor league results. Don't get me wrong, Garrett has a ton of upside. That being said, I kind of expect him to spend a full six years in the minor leagues developing. Crabbe already has three years of development behind him. Crabbe's control has improved his walk rate and now stands to have average control with a well-above average K rate. He also has had good home run suppression numbers throughout his career.
I expect to see Crabbe in the Pensacola rotation all year and I expect him to keep a strong K rate and hopefully see further improvement with his BB numbers. I hope Mario Soto spends some time with him so he can add a good change up along with his plus fastball and plus slider.
I've got high hopes for Crabbe (he's actually next on my list, and given Garrett's lack of support, I'll probably vote for him next round), but that third pitch counts. You can't really hold Garrett's lack of a second plus pitch against him yet. Those first few years are very important in developing pitches, and you can bet that the coaches will be focusing on turning that secondary stuff into plus pitches as well. It's much harder for Crabbe to add an above-average pitch at this point in his career than it is for Garrett.
Crabbe is far, far more likely to reach the majors in some form, whether it's in the rotation or as a reliever, and he'll likely be a good player. But Garrett has the potential to be much more, and at this point in the rankings, that's a rare thing.