Originally Posted by The DARK
I've got high hopes for Crabbe (he's actually next on my list, and given Garrett's lack of support, I'll probably vote for him next round), but that third pitch counts. You can't really hold Garrett's lack of a second plus pitch against him yet. Those first few years are very important in developing pitches, and you can bet that the coaches will be focusing on turning that secondary stuff into plus pitches as well. It's much harder for Crabbe to add an above-average pitch at this point in his career than it is for Garrett.
Crabbe is far, far more likely to reach the majors in some form, whether it's in the rotation or as a reliever, and he'll likely be a good player. But Garrett has the potential to be much more, and at this point in the rankings, that's a rare thing.
I don't necessarily understand why it would be harder for a guy who has already developed one plus off-speed pitch to develop another one. Guys add new pitches in the majors all of the time, so certainly you can't be arguing that he is too old to develop another one. Additionally, I don't think that third pitch needs to be above-average for him to be TOR arm. If he can throw an average change-up over the plate, I think that will allow his plus fastball and plus slider to dominate even more. Look at the results he put up in the hitter friendly California league without a third pitch. I can only imagine his numbers will only improve when adding a third pitch.
I also think Garrett has a chance to be another TOR arm, but he isn't a better prospect right now because he is three years behind Crabbe in the developmental curve and has no refined secondary pitches yet.
That being said, as soon as Crabbe is finally voted in, I will likely shift my support to Garrett. I like high upside arms over high floor players like LaMarre and Brodie Greene who have a better chance of making the bigs, but I don't think will do much when they get there. I like Garrett, he is just too far away for me to vote him in over Crabbe.