Originally Posted by RedsManRick
Just looking at the stats, Lutz makes me nervous.
Strike one: 4 Ks for every BB
Strike two: Limited to 1B (?)
Strike three: 22 years old in A ball
I like the power, but that seems to be all he has going for him.
1. His K rate lessened to acceptable levels in the second half of the season. (He struck out only 50 times in 270 ABs for a K rate 18.8%.) He also walked 19 times in that half for a K:BB rate of 2.5-ish. Not great, but he showed some improvement. Too, in past seasons, he's around that rate, perhaps a little better.
2. He does seem to be limited to 1B, but has been praised as improving to such a level as he may end up being a plus glove. Too, his power will play anywhere as will his hitting tool.
3. He had a late start. If he continues to progress at one level per year, he'll be a major leaguer in four years, at age 26. Not great, but not horrid. I suspect, however, he'll be aggressively moved from Bakersfield to AA, as A+ in that particular bandbox teaches little but confidence and bad habits to power hitters like Lutz. A first half of 900 OPS or better and he's suddenly right on track, with half a season of AA as a 23 year old. 1B Dominic D'Anna is also a decent prospect (C+ or so) and due to go to A+. There's nobody in AA right now to play 1B unless you like Chris Richburg. (You shouldn't.)