Originally Posted by Scrap Irony
Still voting Judy.
Has gone through all the minor league levels and shown adeptness across all levels. Likely will help the Reds this season as a middle reliever or more.
At this point, the surety of help trumps the high ceiling of teenagers that may end up being great in five years. Because most of those teenagers end up pretty much useless in the long run.
Or, to put it another way, if Amir Garrett happens to have a career similar to Judy, he's in the extreme minority.
Scrap, I was going back and forth between Garrett and Judy. I agree with your argument that many young pitchers are pretty useless, but those that aren't happen to be the most valuable commodity in baseball. Young, stud pitchers who cost their team very little and perform way above their contract. These are the kind of prospects the Reds need to accumulate in bunches so even with the high attrition rate, hopefully the farm is producing major league starters every couple years.
Josh Judy has a lot of value. He is far more polished than Garrett and obviously much closer to the bigs. He is the better pitcher right now. He is much more likely to help the Reds. However, Judy is never going to be an ace, nor is he likely to pitch more than 60 innings a year for the Reds. Garrett has the physical tools to be an ace and be a cornerstone for this franchise in 6-8 years. Is it likely? Heck no. Could it happen? Yes.