Originally Posted by Edd Roush
Scrap, I was going back and forth between Garrett and Judy. I agree with your argument that many young pitchers are pretty useless, but those that aren't happen to be the most valuable commodity in baseball. Young, stud pitchers who cost their team very little and perform way above their contract. These are the kind of prospects the Reds need to accumulate in bunches so even with the high attrition rate, hopefully the farm is producing major league starters every couple years.
Josh Judy has a lot of value. He is far more polished than Garrett and obviously much closer to the bigs. He is the better pitcher right now. He is much more likely to help the Reds. However, Judy is never going to be an ace, nor is he likely to pitch more than 60 innings a year for the Reds. Garrett has the physical tools to be an ace and be a cornerstone for this franchise in 6-8 years. Is it likely? Heck no. Could it happen? Yes.
I get what you're saying, too, Edd. Upside like Garrett's is nice to see this low in a prospect list. IMO, however, upside is too often focused on without an idea for the gamut prospects have to prove themselves on. For every Amir Garrett, there are ten Thomas Pauly's. No, twenty.
So, I tend to value that upside less until it's shown itself in multiple professional seasons. That gives me an idea of how that arm plays against others that are just as ballyhooed-- or deserve to be.
Judy has crossed every minor league bridge he's needed to with colors flying high. He's going to pitch in the major leagues. Amir Garrett hasn't even thrown a professional inning. Until a year ago, he wasn't even a baseball player.