Originally Posted by savafan
Sure, but I keep seeing the same people say over and over that Cueto can't sustain his success, while he actually has been doing a pretty good job of sustaining it thus far. The same people have tried hammering into my head that Homer Bailey's peripherals show him to be on the verge of high sustainability of considerable major league success, while he's never come close to putting it all together. I just feel that 10, 15, 20 years down the road, if Homer continues to fail and never comes close to what they envision him to be, they still won't believe that he was a bad starting pitcher, while if Cueto somehow manages to rein in a Cy Young or two, they'll just say that he's lucky and truly a middle of the pack starting pitcher.
I hear ya. But you can pull hypotheticals like that out of your pocket all day. It is really hard to know what will happen 10 or 15 years down the road (except for that Joey Votto will likely still be on the Reds).
If you see this type of analysis as a buzz kill, I guess I understand where you are coming from. But don't put words in people's mouths either. No one is saying Cueto is a bad pitcher or that they wouldn't be happy if he does well. Fact is, Cueto really hasn't been sustaining anything like elite results for very long, and his 2.31 ERA last year really should have been something more like a 3.50 ERA.
Just like you, we're all hoping like the dickens that he can take the next real
step to being a stud starting pitcher. But we're managing our expectations with numbers. Consider these projections the most hopeful ones possible.