Originally Posted by texasdave
If the season ended today the Reds would be on the outside looking in.
The Cardinals are a ridiculous +75 runs scored already. They are 2.4 runs per game better than their opponents. The second best team, Atlanta, is 0.8 runs per game better than their opponents. St. Louis' record is 20-11. Pythag has them at 23-8.
The top five teams in strength of schedule are all from the NL Central division by virtue of having played the Cardinals.
The Cardinals are scoring 5.61 runs per game. At that pace they will score 908 runs. Second-place Atlanta is almost a half a run a game behind that pace.
The Cardinals are allowing just 3.19 runs per game. At that pace they will allow just 517 runs. Washington is even better at 3.03 runs per game allowed.
If they maintain their current pace they will score 391 more runs than they allow. Pythag would work that out to be 120 wins.
To put that 391 into perspective let's look at the Big Red Machine. In 1975 and 1976 the Reds were +254 and +224 respectively. Not even in the same ballpark as 391. The 1927 Yankees were +2.4, same as St. Louis. The 2000 Mariners were only +300.
St. Louis' start is ill.
All of that....and we're just 3.5 out.