Originally Posted by Ironman92
Then why does anyone steal? How few stolen base threats ever are over 80%?
The problem with that 80% number is I believe it tries to average out all situations. There are clearly situations where a steal would help more or that an out would hurt more than normal. This the same reason sac bunts are sometimes a good idea, but would be ridiculous at other times.
I think people try to steal in situations where a steal has better than average value and the risk of out has less than average risk. That is why so many guys try it with a 70% average. When you are attempting 124 times at less than 80%, I think it's probably fair to assume he's running in all situations and can be graded against an average.
I like Hamilton. I think he's a fun story and will be fun to watch. I just dont think his running is a good reason to start him anytime soon. If he was doing the same thing with 5 CS or less, that would be different. 21 CS is a TON and negates at least most (arguably all) of the 100 bases IMO.