Originally Posted by Scrap Irony
I point out not mistakes on individual players, doug, but fundamental mistakes in the way that those guys work. "Pandemic" is the word I used. I stand by it and showed my work by giving an example. There are reasons why everyone should take what these guys say with a gigantic grain of salt.
What they write cannot be trusted.
They are not, however, useless. Some have contacts within the game that give a glimpse into a player's scouting report. Some have past scouting experience. Other than that? They're the same as you and I, doug. Amateurs with opinions. No, check that. They're more dangerous than I am. Because they have a forum and conflated sense of ablility.
I'm not pounding my chest about this either and resent the implication, frankly. Let's discuss this like adults, doug.
So what about when I point out the hundreds and hundreds of times when 'they' were right, doesn't that kind of get around your 'epidemic' problem? And wouldn't is also point that we shouldn't take anything they write with a giant grain of salt?
It has been said before and it needs to be said again.... you ask 10 scouts about a player and you are probably going to get at least 5 different opinions.
As for some of them having contacts in the industry.... well, sure, unless you are talking about the big guys such as BA, BP, Law, Piliere and Sickels, in which case they all have many contacts within the industry. Not just 5. Probably more than 30. Each.
This is something where you are wrong more than you are right if you talk about enough players over a long enough period of time. The best of the best are wrong on guys more than they are right on guys.
When it comes to Cingrani, I stand strongly by what I say about him. Anyone who has watched him pitch and says that his secondary stuff is up to par right now isn't watching the same pitcher that I am. His offspeed stuff is incredibly inconsistent and frankly, more often than not, not even average. That doesn't mean he can't or won't improve it to the point where he can be a starter in the Majors. It just means that right now, his offspeed stuff isn't good enough to work in the Majors and at 23 and in AA, that leaves open questions about whether or not he winds up in the bullpen.