Originally Posted by bubbachunk
Think of it as potential vs production. Some players have immense potential but never have the production to back it up. Some players produce for a time but their lack of skill or potential eventually comes back and shows them for what they truely are.
Can you give me a list of guys who didn't have acceptable numbers in the minor leagues that went on to great major league careers? Or even acceptable major league careers?
Drew Stubbs? Okay, maybe.
I'm guessing that almost all prospects-- 90+% of them, maybe more-- are easy to see from their numbers. Especially hitters. If you compare them across their own team, their league/ level, their age group, you can come up with a list of guys that should perform well.
Those in the lower echelon may become useful spare parts or platoon partners, but I don't know of one that's become a star. (Though, admittedly, I could absolutely be wrong. This is an absolute guess.)