Originally Posted by Scrap Irony
Can you give me a list of guys who didn't have acceptable numbers in the minor leagues that went on to great major league careers? Or even acceptable major league careers?
Drew Stubbs? Okay, maybe.
I'm guessing that almost all prospects-- 90+% of them, maybe more-- are easy to see from their numbers. Especially hitters. If you compare them across their own team, their league/ level, their age group, you can come up with a list of guys that should perform well.
Those in the lower echelon may become useful spare parts or platoon partners, but I don't know of one that's become a star. (Though, admittedly, I could absolutely be wrong. This is an absolute guess.)
Hanley Ramirez is an interesting case study for minor league vs major league numbers. In the minors he never hit more than 8 homers in a season while in the majors he has averaged 25 homers per 162 games and has produced far greater than he did in the minors. While he was always young for his level and a top prospect, he really exploded once he got to the majors.