07-12-2012, 01:41 PM
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Bedford, KY
Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?
Originally Posted by dougdirt
Acceptable walk rates vary based on a guys strikeout rate. A guy who walks 5% of the time but strikes out 25% of the time.... not acceptable. A guy who walks 5% of the time but strikes out 10% of the time, acceptable. Keep the K/BB better than 3-1 and you are on the right side of things. Between 2009 and today Brandon Phillips has a walk rate of 6.5%. His strikeout rate though is at 12%. Phillips doesn't walk much at all, but it is ok because he also doesn't strike out much, allowing him to hit for a solid average while doing so. Gregorius falls into that Phillips range both in terms of walks and strikeouts over his career.
I hate to bring it up, but its a valid point, Stubbs never really used his power in the minors, but once he got to the Majors, it showed up. Yes, the Cal League is about the only place where he has shown the game power, but go watch him take BP. The power is there. As I said, it is a matter of translating it into game power, which I think is actually more an approach issue than anything else.
I overestimated Didi some there, but he is still at a 1.7 K/BB rate this season. That is pretty good.
With Hamilton, it remains to be seen if those walks actually translate forward when pitchers who can throw strikes when they want to get to pitch to him. Counting on a guy with absolutely no power to walk 10% of the time in the Majors is questionable at best. There are some guys who have been able to do it, but they are few and far between.
Comparing Gregorius and Janish is not all that fair. Gregorius is 22 right now and in AAA. When Janish was 22 he was playing in Dayton.
As for Hamilton showing some of his batting practice power.... he is. That is all he has got. Hamilton doesn't have any semblance of projectable power. Didi does.
With the back of the baseball card.... if we are only ranking prospects based on how they would perform today, then all of our top prospects would be in AAA because they are simply better than the guys in AA/A+/A?RK (well, most of them at least).
It seems to me that the difference is that you believe Hamilton will continue to walk at the high rate he has shown this year and that will offset his absolute no power. Where as I don't think it is a safe bet at all to assume Hamilton will walk at anywhere near the same rate he has thus far this season in the Majors and could wind up being exactly what Didi Gregorius is right now, but with more strikeouts, more steals, lesser power and lesser defense.
Before I get into this: are you saying you'd take Gregorius over Hamilton?
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