Originally Posted by Homer Bailey
Because he's been insanely BABIP lucky, and I'm guessing you know that. Career FIP of 4.41, and xFIP of 4.56. -0.3 WAR for his career. He's basically a below replacement level reliever.
If you ignore the possibility that after three consecutive years, perhaps it's not that terribly lucky, sure.
Even if you regress his BABIP to .300, which seems like a reach considering he's maintained his BABIP in three straight seasons, you're still left with an OPS against of league average.
So no, he's actually not a replacement level reliever. He's more like an average reliever.
And for the record, I like FIP and xFIP, but I think the true measure of a pitcher is in between FIP and OPS. I don't think either extremes are the most accurate measures of a pitcher. I think it's too little to not account for anything in play, but I also think not all of what happens in play was the doing of a pitcher. So I don't think OPS against is perfect, but I don't think FIP is either.