Quote:
Originally Posted by Homer Bailey
Because he's been insanely BABIP lucky, and I'm guessing you know that. Career FIP of 4.41, and xFIP of 4.56. -0.3 WAR for his career. He's basically a below replacement level reliever.
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If you ignore the possibility that after three consecutive years, perhaps it's not that terribly lucky, sure.
Even if you regress his BABIP to .300, which seems like a reach considering he's maintained his BABIP in three straight seasons, you're still left with an OPS against of league average.
So no, he's actually not a replacement level reliever. He's more like an average reliever.
And for the record, I like FIP and xFIP, but I think the true measure of a pitcher is in between FIP and OPS. I don't think either extremes are the most accurate measures of a pitcher. I think it's too little to not account for anything in play, but I also think not all of what happens in play was the doing of a pitcher. So I don't think OPS against is perfect, but I don't think FIP is either.