Originally Posted by MikeS21
HB, all I can tell you is that for the Reds teams I watched, the ERA stat worked just fine. The ones with the lower ERA's were the pitchers who tended to be dependable game after game. Of course those Reds pitchers in the 70's benefited greatly from defense. They had four Gold Glovers straight up the middle (C, 2B, SS, CF). I guess that made them lucky. But if lucky can bring World Series titles, I can live with lucky.
You pasted a quote from another post that outlined Ondrusek's 2012 numbers:
As I went back through the stats, 25 out his 47 appearances have come against teams with winning records, and 12 appearances were against teams who were in first place in their division. He went his first 17 appearances and gave up NO runs.
Finally, on May 17th, he had a bad game and gave up five runs (in NY, not GABP). Take away that one appearance and his ERA drops to 1.84 for the season.
Honestly, I've never been a Logan Odrusek champion - mainly because I've listened to and believed all the complaints about him. But the more I look at Ondrusek's stats, the more I wonder why all the uproar. I'm not sure what else Logan Ondrusek can do.
Is Ondrusek lucky? Probably. But his luck has been going on for about three years and at some point, you have to start wondering if some of it is actual skill, an not luck.
There isn't much of a point of continuing this back and forth, because we're talking about two different things. You're still talking about ERA, and arguing things that are results based. I'm talking about Logan's actual ability, and things he can control.
Overall, Logan's ERA is below 3.00, yes. If I'm looking backwards, would I rather have a guy with a 3.00 ERA but a 5.00 FIP, or would I rather have a guy with a 5.00 ERA, and a 3.00 FIP? Obviously (if looking backwards), I would want the guy with the 3.00 ERA. But, if I'm looking forward (as Dusty, and anyone in any decision making role with this ball club should be doing), I want to put the best pitchers in the best situations to succeed. A guy that walks that many and allows that many balls to be put in play is a ticking time bomb. It almost came back to bite Dusty against Houston last week, but Stubbs saved him. Logan's only saving grace is luck on balls put in play. Do we really want to see how long we can ride out that lucky streak?
The point is there are many, many arms in the bullpen that are better than Logan. Logan should be used in the Simon role, and should not pitch in key situations.