Originally Posted by Brutus
The Reds increased their chance of scoring a run by 13% with that bunt. If they'd had a normal at-bat and Stubbs had struck out, they would have decreased by 10%. That's a 23% swing by giving up the out there.
Their win expectancy decreased with that bunt. The point is that the goal shouldn't be to score one run. It should be to avoid outs. It's silly to chase 1 run in the 3rd inning.