Re: 8-14-2012 Mets at Reds
Originally Posted by Homer Bailey
Their win expectancy decreased with that bunt. The point is that the goal shouldn't be to score one run. It should be to avoid outs. It's silly to chase 1 run in the 3rd inning.
Their run expectancy increased by .3 with a runner at third and one out as opposed to a runner at second and one out. Granted, there's always the chance Stubbs could have reached base, but given his low OBP and propensity to strikeout, I would say that's statistically the correct call.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda