Originally Posted by Brutus
Their run expectancy increased by .3 with a runner at third and one out as opposed to a runner at second and one out. Granted, there's always the chance Stubbs could have reached base, but given his low OBP and propensity to strikeout, I would say that's statistically the correct call.
Plus those runs/win expectancy charts are just general guides. The precise situation needs to be considered.
Personally I don't bunt there because Young is very hittable, but I can understand it with Stubbs and his high K rate.