Originally Posted by dougdirt
Right now, Xavier Paul is a much better hitter than Hamilton is. They aren't even close.
As for comparisons for Billy Hamilton.... There have been 54 players from 2010-2012 with 900 PA's and a sub .121 IsoP. Four of them walk more than 10%. Joe Mauer, Jamey Carroll, Daric Barton and Brett Gardner. Hamilton is striking out 18.1% of the time he steps to the plate this year. Five of the 54 strike out more than that. Only 10 are over 17%.
Guys with the power of Hamilton simply don't walk 10% of the time. Yes, there are some exceptions, but they are few and far between. Top it off with he is at the top end of that group in strikeouts and it adds to the questions.
The guy could honestly compete for a few MVP's in the future. But he could also turn into Tony Gwynn Jr, Nyjer Morgan, Emilio Bonifacio, Michael Bourn or the wide array of guys between them too.
You're using the wrong comparisons. Show the numbers of those same guys at Hamilton's point in his minor league career. I bet you'll see a huge difference. It's very iffy to compare guys' Major League numbers, especially without regard to age and experience, to someone who's 20 years old and in AA.
You've already admitted that guys' walk rates do carry over relatively well. So casting a wide net and saying "guys with the power of Hamilton simply don't walk 10% of the time" isn't prudent. Hamilton isn't every single player of that skillset. His skillset suggests he does walk more. Some guys do have better plate discipline. Just because he doesn't hit for a lot of power doesn't mean he won't be able to carry a higher walk rate.