Originally Posted by dougdirt
Brutus, Rickey Henderson hit more home runs in a season (8) than Hamilton has in his career (7) 16 times. Randy Milligan hit 20 home runs in 1990. Warren Newson never topped 300 PA's in a single season yet still had multiple double digit home run seasons. Tony Phillips had 7 double digit home run seasons in his career and hit 27 at one point. Jeremy Giambi played 6 season and hit double digit home runs in half of them, including a 20 home run campaign. John Kruk hit 20 home runs in his second season in the Majors.
Lance Blankenship works, kind of. Of course he never played a full season in his life either. Dave Magadan works. Little home run power, lots of walks. Struck out significantly less than Hamilton does though. Still time for Hamilton to fix that some. John Canglosi is much like Blankenship, never really played a full season except for one year. Lenny Dykstra kind of works too, but he struck out at half the rate of what Hamilton is currently striking out at.
I didn't expand beyond the initial list, but the point is that Hamilton has such a unique skillset when it comes to Major Leaguers (every day players who probably aren't going to hit you 5 home runs in a season) that it is tough to find actual comparisons.
It sounds like we were using ISO as a reference and now that it's been used in context to show what we were discussing isn't all that unprecedented, now you're changing the terms and expectations a bit.
I showed a case using ISO, but now you're focusing on homers and strikeouts.
All this is kind of silly because comparing someone's minor league numbers to a subset of players in the majors is terribly shortsighted. Those players in the majors often had wildly different numbers in the minors, so doing a cross-level comparison without taking into account equivalencies is worthless, to be honest.
We know, and all agree, that walk rates carry over pretty well. Hamilton by all accounts has tremendous plate discipline and a good eye. I don't see why someone can't accept the possibility that he *might* carry a great walk rate at the next level. It's really not that big of a leap. It might dip a little, and almost certainly will from the current 17%, but guys with good pitch recognition and discipline don't lose that at the next level. They'll still be able to work counts and lay off bad pitches. That's a skill that will carry over and will lead him to a higher walk rate than most.