Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......
I mostly agree with Brutus, but we also have to remember that Bailey came up to MLB fairly young. He would hardly be the first 28-30 year old starting pitcher to make another jump.
Unfortunately, it would be an expensive gamble to see if he does it (ie. Darren Dreifort - whom never made that extra jump and got an injured). The problem with Baiely is that the Reds will have to essentialyl pay him dollar for dollar what he deserves based on what he prdocues. From here, he wont be cheap regardless of what he does, and for that reason, I'd rather have Leake whom is a pretty good starter, and has the extra cheap year which gives him more controllable value before having to pay for whatever perceived upside there is.