Originally Posted by Benihana
John Manuel from BA provides his take:
Interesting that he likes Travieso more than Corcino or Cingrani, although BA is known to really value draft pedigree/recent draftees.
I enjoy reading BA, but they have absolutely no grasp of probability. Their prospect lists are always loaded with 'high ceiling' guys in the low minors (or who haven't even played in the pros yet). Those guys have 'high ceilings' because they haven't had the warts in their game exposed yet. Most of them will never even make it to the majors. BA consistently undervalues guys who have established 'high floors' but have warts that will probably prevent them from being stars.
Todd Frazier is a good example of this. They had him ranked behind Yorman Rodriguez in their preseason rankings. Why? Because Yorman has 'unlimited upside' while Todd was pigeonholed as a utility player. The reality is, Yorman is a physically gifted athlete who is more likely to never make the major leagues than he is to become an impact player. Yet he ranks above Frazier, who pretty clearly had a major league future as a utility man and still had a chance to pan out to be even more. It drives me batty every year seeing half (or more) of those top 10 lists filled with guys who will never make the majors, while guys like Frazier get ignored.
Now, back to the pitchers, I think BA over-rates Travieso & Stephenson because they don't know their weaknesses yet, and they interpret that as him not having any weaknesses rather than a lack of information. On the flip side, they know Corcino and Cingrani's supposed weaknesses, so that makes them lesser prospects than the two recent draftees with unknown weaknesses. They also ignore the biggest weakness of all young pitchers .... staying healthy. Corcino and Cingrani being a couple of years ahead of the kids has value in and of itself, as it reduces the likelihood of them having a career-altering injury before making it to the majors.