Originally Posted by dougdirt
Steve, I see where you are going, but there is a reason it works that way. High Floor/not stars are a lot easier to find than stars. Teams value star potential, even if it is just that, a lot more than 'regular starter' potential, even if they are close to being that today.
I get that, but most of those 'not stars' were the 'high ceiling' prospects of a few years ago. They didn't become 'not stars' until the warts in their game got exposed. The same will be true of most of today's 'high ceiling' prospects. They are going to wind up as 'not stars' or outright busts. Only a tiny, TINY fraction of them will live up to that star potential.
My point is the only reason they have 'high ceilings' now is that we have imperfect information on them, not because the players themselves change. BA essentially ranks guys in inverse order of how much information they have on them. The less they know, the higher the ranking. The more they know, the lower the ranking.