Originally Posted by Steve4192
I get that, but most of those 'not stars' were the 'high ceiling' prospects of a few years ago. They didn't become 'not stars' until the warts in their game got exposed. The same will be true of most of today's 'high ceiling' prospects. They are going to wind up as 'not stars' or outright busts. Only a tiny, TINY fraction of them will live up to that star potential.
My point is the only reason they have 'high ceilings' now is that we have imperfect information on them, not because the players themselves change. BA essentially ranks guys in inverse order of how much information they have on them. The less they know, the higher the ranking. The more they know, the lower the ranking.
Well, let me explain... a guy like Todd Frazier was never a 'star' guy. He had one above 50 tool, power. And it was a 55-60 (slightly above average to above average power).
Of course only a tiny portion will wind up as stars, because if everyone were a star, then no one would be. But when you start out with a higher overall potential, the step down when you don't reach your potential can still be higher. That is why you see a guy like Yorman Rodriguez ranked higher than a Todd Frazier. And before we go ahead and call that some crazy rational, we should probably wait 7 years to see how Yorman Rodriguez is doing at the same age that Frazier is right now.
It isn't always the more they know, the lower the ranking. Take Stephenson for example.... we did not know nearly what we do about him now when the season began, but you can bet your bottom dollar that he is going to be ranked a lot higher at the end of this year than last. And that is because we do know more about him and he improved his skillset from that point in time. His raw tools even took a small step forward too with increased velocity.
Prospecting isn't an easy game to play. The best in the world at it (the guys who work for MLB teams) get it wrong as often as they get it right and they have more information than all of us do. I prefer the high upside type of rankings though because I would rather know who has the potential to be a superstar player than the every day solid regular. Those guys are generally easier to spot.