Originally Posted by Steve4192
I'm the opposite, because scouting scales are just as flawed at detecting 'star potential' as everything else. MLB history is chock full of guys who were undervalued by the scouts until they arrived in the majors and starting racking up the hardware.
Mike Piazza was a 62nd round draft pick because the scouts didn't see ANY upside in him. The Dodgers were ridiculed for even taking him at all.
Ryne Sandberg was a 20th round draft pick because the scouts didn't see much upside in him.
Albert Pujols was an 13th round pick because the scouts didn't see much upside in him.
Nolan Ryan was a 12th round draft pick because the scouts didn't see much upside in him.
At least upper minor league results can point out which guys are likely to make it to the majors and get the opportunity to shine. Most single-A 'high ceiling' guys will never even get the opportunity.
Pulling out a handful of examples doesn't really make your point.
Studies show that the higher up you get picked, the higher value you wind up with. Of course there are always exceptions, but generally speaking, the higher a guy gets picked, the more value he is going to bring. 1st rounders historically outperform 2nd rounders who historically outperform 3rd rounds and so on.