Originally Posted by dougdirt
Studies show that the higher up you get picked, the higher value you wind up with. Of course there are always exceptions, but generally speaking, the higher a guy gets picked, the more value he is going to bring. 1st rounders historically outperform 2nd rounders who historically outperform 3rd rounds and so on.
I should hope so, because otherwise scouting would be completely useless, and that is not what I am saying. I am saying that I trust honest-to-God measurable professional results more than I trust scouts opinions. When no data is available (like in the draft), I'll gladly take the scouts opinion. I was just pointing out that those opinions, while better than nothing, are often wrong.
As far as the values of drafted players go, the numbers for success in every round are comically low. IIRC, even blue-chip first rounders have a failure rate that is around 70%. Granted, that is better than 80% failure rate of second rounders, but either way, the draft is a like a roulette wheel. Good scouting improves your odds, but even good scouts get WAY more wrong than they get right.