Originally Posted by Steve4192
I should hope so, because otherwise scouting would be completely useless, and that is not what I am saying. I am saying that I trust honest-to-God measurable professional results more than I trust scouts opinions. When no data is available (like in the draft), I'll gladly take the scouts opinion. I was just pointing out that those opinions, while better than nothing, are often wrong.
As far as the values of drafted players go, the numbers for success in every round are comically low. IIRC, even blue-chip first rounders have a failure rate that is around 70%. Granted, that is better than 80% failure rate of second rounders, but either way, the draft is a like a roulette wheel. Good scouting improves your odds, but even good scouts get WAY more wrong than they get right.
I trust a nice blend of scouting and stats. On their own, both can tell you something but could be concealing something very important.
Good scouts get plenty right. To be honest, most guys drafted beyond the 3rd round aren't even viewed as regulars by most scouts. You aren't likely drafting guys in the 5th round and claiming he is a future regular starting position player (a guy who goes there for a reason, not a guy who fell and signed for $2M).