Originally Posted by dougdirt
70% is wrong anyways, so I don't know who is throwing that around. It is closer to 74%.
In a lower run scoring environment, a steal would be more valuable, but a caught stealing would also be more detrimental. My guess? It is still pretty close to evening out in that 74% range.
Wouldn't a caught stealing carry a bigger penalty in high scoring environment? To take it to extremes, if every fifth batter hit a home run, then it would be foolish to attempt to steal. On the other hand, in a low scoring environment, small ball becomes more important and successful steals are relatively more rewarding.