Originally Posted by dougdirt
I don't really know that his upside is Rickey type OBP at all. If he doesn't have the power then he is going to have to walk as much or more while also striking out less often, which he isn't close to being able to do right now.
Henderson had a batting stance where he really scrunched down. The umps at time gave pitchers pitching to him a very small strike zone.
IMO, that had a bigger impact on Rickey's OBP then his power.
Rickey had nice power (297 HR in 25 seasons), but pitchers did everything they could to keep him off base. They weren't walking Henderson because they were scared of his HR power. Henderson played on several really good teams where he had guys with better power hitting behind him.. In other words, no one would give Stubbs a walk because they fear his power, with Votto hitting behind him.
If Billy becomes a 100 SB threat, teams are not going to want him on base period. The question is whether Billy will hit major league pitching well enough that he's pitched carefully. As I said, many minor league players have nice walk rates on the farm. Then they come to the big leagues, can't hit big league pitching, and the walks evaporate.
If Billy can hit .300 in the majors as his hitting coach suggests, he'll get plenty of walks to go along with it. Billy seems to have good pitch recognition in the minors. That will transfer to the bigs. Now, whether Billy can actually hit .300 remains to be seen..