Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards
Originally Posted by Kc61
I think the identity of that other team is important. The opposition is half the game.
It's not half the game over a larger sample though. Or at least it's not necessarily half of the equation. If you did probability, which is the best measure of predictive value, you'd find the differences in competition are smaller over a larger sample. Thus the probability of winning 'x' games is goin to rest a lot more on the actual team being predicted because in this case, the difference between the winning expectation of the Pirates and Cardinals is probably much larger than the average of the teams they're facing over the last 35 games.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda