Originally Posted by Brutus
It's not half the game over a larger sample though. If you did probability, which is the best measure of predictive value, you'd find the differences in competition are smaller over a larger sample. Thus the probability of winning 'x' games is goin to rest a lot more on the actual team being predicted.
In other words, the Pythagorean expectation of the Pirates and Cardinals is a lot larger than the average differences in future competition they'd be facing.
The sample I've been focused on is about five or six weeks. I haven't done probability. I'm simply looking at the schedule.
Need Leake and Bailey to come through, get at least one win.