Originally Posted by Brutus
I don't see any of this "ridiculous, rampant optimism" you speak of. If Hamilton only projects as a .750 OPS bat with 80 steals, he would be of enormous value. One doesn't even have to expect power to ever develop to hope for a .350/.400/.750 situation.
If he sustains a 10-12% walk rate, and around 18% strikeout rate, he'll fit in the above line. And that's not really ridiculously optimistic to expect.
I'd call .750 OPS and 80 Steals pretty darned optimistic. The fact that you qualify it with "only" seems to make it "ridiculous, rampant optimism" IMO. Kid's in AA for half a season. Its still a long way to the major leagues.
This season has been a big step forward for Hamilton. I'm very encouraged by his bat. The steals don't mean so much to me and seem more like a sideshow IMO, but that slash line has him up at the top of my prospect list. Still, he's far from a sure thing. Better players with better stats have completely washed out at the big league level. People act like he's an impact lead-off guy at minimum and I think the downside is much lower than that. It is with every minor leaguer who has never played a day in the big leagues.