Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA
Originally Posted by mth123
I'd call .750 OPS and 80 Steals pretty darned optimistic. The fact that you qualify it with "only" seems to make it "ridiculous, rampant optimism" IMO. Kid's in AA for half a season. Its still a long way to the major leagues.
This season has been a big step forward for Hamilton. I'm very encouraged by his bat. The steals don't mean so much to me and seem more like a sideshow IMO, but that slash line has him up at the top of my prospect list. Still, he's far from a sure thing. Better players with better stats have completely washed out at the big league level. People act like he's an impact lead-off guy at minimum and I think the downside is much lower than that. It is with every minor leaguer who has never played a day in the big leagues.
He's 21 and has nearly an .850 OPS at Double-A and you think projecting 100 points lower at the major league level is "ridiculous, rampant optimism?" A .290 average, .100 ISO and 8-9% walk rate translates into a .750 OPS. It's not a sure thing but it's not far-fetched. Again, he's 21 and has nearly an .850 OPS in AA. There are less than a dozen players in all of Double-A this year carrying an .850 OPS.
You're going to have to explain how on earth that's ridiculous optimism.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Last edited by Brutus; 08-29-2012 at 05:19 AM.