Originally Posted by Scrap Irony
With all due respect, doug's been just about as wrong on Hamilton as is humanly possible so far.
And if a kid with a ceiling of .300+/.400+/.425 with plus SS defense isn't something to get excited about, I don't know what is.
I see very few posters on Redszone that think Hamilton's going to be an All-Star next season or something like that. Many have (rightly, IMO) pointed to his superior BB rate, BB:K ratio, BA, obp, speed, and improving glove as proof positive of a true difference-maker in the one spot the Reds are lacking: leadoff. Major league equivalent hitters include Rafael Furcal, Juan Pierre, Brett Butler, Dave Collins, Otis Nixon, and Willie Wilson-- there's not a Hall of Famer in that group and very few All-Star nods.
Finally, I disagree that doug should "bring people back down to earth" on anyone. He should give his opinion without bias. IMO, doug tends to downgrade speed guys because he sees very little value in it. Others have disagreed with him on that for the five years he's been on the board and writing about prospects. In Hamilton's case, you have a guy who's got an 80 tool-- a true top of the line tool. It's one many national writers and prospect pundits have noted-- why shouldn't fans be excited about that?
I didn't say he isn't a prospect to get excited about. I just think some people are making the same mistake with Billy that is made with a lot of prospects. And that is that (some) people start dreaming about what kind of player the prospect could become if he improves this or that and they just get carried away with it.
I've never thought that Doug downgrades
speed guys. My impression has been that he just didn't think that speed alone boosted the value of a prospect as much as what others thought. I can understand that. If I were to pick one tool for a prospect to be an 80 in it wouldn't be speed. Imo, the hit tool, power, and defense, mean more.