Originally Posted by mth123
Your original post says
The math based on the assumptions isn't where I'm having the issue. The IF itself to me is wildly optimistic. The 10 to 12% walk rate and 18% K Rate at the big league level are both still optimistic assumptions. We seem to forget that the two little letters "IF" in the front of the assumption carries the possibility that those things may not happen.
There are 38 qualifiers in the NL with an OPS of at least .750. To assume that a guy with a half a season in AA will be in that fairly select group seems wildly optimistic IMO. It's not impossible. It's worth giving a chance and finding out. But hitting in the big leagues and hitting in AA are not the same thing.
Trust me, I'm dreaming about it too. But I'm not assuming its automatic. I'd certainly give him a serious look at a spot where the Reds have a need (hint: its in the OF and not at SS), but I wouldn't deal a solid player to create a spot for him. I don't think it will take all that long to convert to CF. I'd begin that process no later than next spring with an eye on Hamilton getting the call by Memorial Day unless Stubbs takes a huge step forward. I'd probably start him out platooning with Stubbs. In AA, his OPS vs RHP is .893 vs only .727 vs. LHP. He seems a nice fit with Stubbs in a platoon until he can grab the job full time. That would be a low risk way to break him in. The Reds have gotten little from CF against RHP anyway. If he tanks, it doesn't make the team much worse off.
Just a note on platooning him. He didn't start switch hitting until after he was drafted. I would not want to stunt his growth hitting right handed by bringing him up and not allowing him to go against left handers. I know people are really excited about this kid, but he needs at least another year in the minors to hone his hitting and even more his defensive abilities. If he is to be called up early, I would in no way want him to platoon.