Originally Posted by mth123
Your original post says
The math based on the assumptions isn't where I'm having the issue. The IF itself to me is wildly optimistic. The 10 to 12% walk rate and 18% K Rate at the big league level are both still optimistic assumptions. We seem to forget that the two little letters "IF" in the front of the assumption carries the possibility that those things may not happen.
There are 38 qualifiers in the NL with an OPS of at least .750. To assume that a guy with a half a season in AA will be in that fairly select group seems wildly optimistic IMO. It's not impossible. It's worth giving a chance and finding out. But hitting in the big leagues and hitting in AA are not the same thing.
Trust me, I'm dreaming about it too. But I'm not assuming its automatic. I'd certainly give him a serious look at a spot where the Reds have a need (hint: its in the OF and not at SS), but I wouldn't deal a solid player to create a spot for him. I don't think it will take all that long to convert to CF. I'd begin that process no later than next spring with an eye on Hamilton getting the call by Memorial Day unless Stubbs takes a huge step forward. I'd probably start him out platooning with Stubbs. In AA, his OPS vs RHP is .893 vs only .727 vs. LHP. He seems a nice fit with Stubbs in a platoon until he can grab the job full time. That would be a low risk way to break him in. The Reds have gotten little from CF against RHP anyway. If he tanks, it doesn't make the team much worse off.
There are only about 12 guys in Double-A hitting at least .850, so why should I be pessimistic that a guy can be one of about 40 in the Majors hitting .750 at some point in his career? I think that sort of logic is showing that it's not I who's being ridiculous.
I didn't "forget" about the letters "if" being in front of the word. If means exactly what it means... if, hence the recognition that it's not automatic. Nonetheless, those aren't outrageous peripherals considering what he's doing now. Walk and strikeout rates do translate from minors to majors relatively well. Guys that take walks in the minors typically also draw them in the majors. So those peripherals aren't "ridiculous." Walks and strikeouts correlate to the majors better than anything.
But again, he doesn't even need to crack 10% walk rate to get to .750. A line of .290/.350/.400 can be achieved with roughly an 8-9% walk rate and .110 ISO. But I suppose you're going to say that's ridiculously optimistic too? It's not, but embellish if you must. On the contrary, it's actually extremely reasonable given his current line. Not a guarantee, no, but not wildly optimistic.
Frankly, I'm being extremely analytical about this. I have not even remotely been high on Hamilton until this year. And the only reason I'm high on him is not because of some perception that he'll be something he's not. It's because he's improved tremendously in areas that are usually very steady in translating to MLB success.