Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
He has 2258 minor league PAs as an .827 OPS player. In his "high minors" (AA-AAA), he has an .802 OPS (.340 / .462 SLG) on 1507 PAs.
Is it possible he's improved? Sure, I'm not going to discount that entirely. But, I'm going to view 2,000+ PAs as more significant to future projection than barely a full season of MLB PAs. I'm always going to view an all-star turn skeptically from a guy who was good, but not great, in his minor league career.
I understand your logic. But I would argue his more recent 554 MLB PA should be weighted much higher than his 500 AA PA.
Minor league stats help project a guy going forward, but so do 554 big league PA's. Just don't brush them aside...include them in your reasoning.