Re: Todd Frazier
I thnk Frazier is more than likely more like his AA stats. AAA was a bit misleading as it does seem to sap power (ie. Joey Votto). You bump up his AAA stats, and they look more like his AA stats. You regress his major leagues stats, and they look more or less the same.
He's a good hitter, and will be a good starter as long as he can show that he can adequately defend at 3rd or LF. He'll never be a great player though IMO.