Originally Posted by George Foster
The latest stats available on Stubbs (reds.com) are through 116 games.
Stubbs has had 1734 ML at-bats. What is most alarming is he's not getting better, he's not remained the same, he's getting worse. Since 2010, he's first full season, all of his hitting stats have gone down. Down in 2011 compaired to 2010, and down in 2012 as compaired to 2011.
Very few ML hitters improve their hitting stats dramatically after 1700 ML at-bats. As the saying goes, "you are what the back of your baseball card says you are."
I really think Stubbs career is at a crossroads. He needs to totally change his approach to hitting, to have a chance to be one of those rare few who can dramatically improve their overall hitting stats. He needs to make a lot more contact and use his speed, he has struck out 563 times.
After 1700 ML at-bats it is unrealistic of us as fans to think he's "going to break out of it" or his "potential" will finally come through. This is "the real" Drew Stubbs. We will see spring training of 2013 if he has made real changes. If not, the Reds might part ways with him and he becomes a Cory Patterson. A different team every other year. His defense will keep him in the majors but not as a star but a bench player. If the Reds had a better option, he would already be on the bench.
I think the bolded part is the exact reason why his stats have gotten worse the last couple years. Stubbs actually has been trying to make more contact and use his speed and that approach has hurt his game tremendously. That approach is never going to work for him and he should in fact do the exact opposite. Trying to make more contact has only resulted in weaker contact, including on the balls that he would have hit harder using his old approach. The weaker contact is leading to more infield singles but fewer line drives, doubles, triples and home runs. To get hits on a regular basis you need to make hard
contact -- not just contact.
Here is part of a post I made in another thread.
Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling
You can make a strong case that his attempts to reduce the strikeouts are the cause of his regression the last couple years. His power is way down, possibly due to attempting to make more contact and hit the ball where it is pitched. If I were him I would go with the Jose Bautista approach (not 'roids) and try to yank everything down the left field line. He hits way too many fly balls to centerfield that could be homers down the line. He is always going to strike out a lot, so he should at least try to maximize his power numbers. He is never going to be a high-contact slap hitter. He is too tall, his arms are too long and his swing is too slow for that. He should swing hard, aim for where the fences are closest and run like a gazelle until they throw him out.
And as Tom Servo mentioned, Stubbs' awful pitch-recognition skills are another reason why he will never be a good contact hitter. The Reds need to quit trying to force him to be a speedy contact hitter because he has tried that and failed. Stubbs needs to work the count, take more walks, swing HARD and pull the ball down the line. Stubbs' body, swing and vision compel him to be a power hitter. Instead of trying to make weak contact and leg out infield hits Stubbs needs to use that speed to turn hard-hit singles into doubles and doubles into triples.