Originally Posted by PuffyPig
I assume that if you say that xFIP isn't always an accurate reflection of a pitcher's ability, you are disagreeing with it. Homer Bailey (the poster) indicated that Leake's HR/FB rate is higher than the average number that xFIP gives him.
If in fact Leake will give up HR's at that rate his entire career (and that is an accurate reflection of his skill), then that's a flaw in how xFIP is calculated.
May be a bit of semantics here Puffy, as I think we're on the same page, but I don't think it's necessarily a flaw in how xFIP is calculated. It could be a flaw in how useful it is, but not calculated. xFIP just tells us what a pitchers FIP would be if he had a league average FB/HR rate. On a player by player basis you can assess how meaningful that actually is, but that's all the number really tells us.