Originally Posted by Brutus
You avoid homers by giving up fewer fly balls. You don't have a ton of influence over your HR/FB rate. Perhaps a little, but not much. Most guys generally hover around 10-11%.
He's giving up almost 2 grounders for every fly ball. If he were giving up a normal rate of homers to fly balls, that number would be in the range of 13-15 homers which is why his xFIP is 3.71. Latos, despite his strikeouts, has an xFIP of 3.83.
Leake's xFIP is ok because the stat essentially ignores homers allowed by neutralizing them according to a league average rate.
That's fine, it's one metric.
But I maintain that a pitcher like Leake will never survive in the big leagues allowing 23 homers by early September.