Originally Posted by Brutus
His SIERA, which accounts for batted ball types, also has him at a 3.90 predicted ERA.
If he keeps up his current K, walk and groundball rates, he would be expected to be a sub-4 pitcher going forward. That will survive for a long career. I don't want to act like all of those homers are a product of bad luck, but a 17% HR/FB rate is not something that would be sustained for a long period of time. I don't think it's ever been done for longer than a season, in fact.
Leake also has by far the highest line drive rate against him of any Reds pitcher, except Redmond. 26.1 percent. Nobody else is close.
If you want the last word, you can have it. I'm done discussing Leake.