Originally Posted by medford
I think he's exceeded the expectations of many b/c so many viewed him as "pitcher lucky" due to his lack of strikeouts and lower velocity (ie he didn't control the outcome in a sabermetric way). I think many thought he was nothing more than a 4.5-5.5 era innings eater for the life of the extenstion.
Some of us went the other way too. A pitcher can do just fine if he sustains a K:BB ratio north of 2 --Last year he suffered what amounted to bad HR/FB "luck" exacerbated by a lower K% and lower GB/FB ratio. More balls in play than usual. More of those were flyballs than usual. And more of those flyballs were homers than usual.
I put quotes around luck because it was almost assuredly not just randomness -- at least the lower K and groundball rates.
I expected the HR/FB to come back down to normal ranges, dropping his ERA back in to the mid 4's. But he's gone and returned to his groundballing ways while also upping his Ks and lowering his BBs. His 3.6 K:BB ratio is the best of his career. I think that walk rate is the biggest thing going relatively unnoticed. He's got the 4th lowest walk rate in the majors.
When you don't give out free passes and batted balls are grounders more often than not, you're likely going to be pretty effective -- especially when you have the infield defense we do.