Originally Posted by cincinnati chili
You people are all outsmarting yourselves.
Far be it for me to defend Homer Bailey, but has anyone noticed that all three of his September starts in Great American Ballpark have been good ones? Two of them have come against teams fighting to get into the playoffs. I don't think GAB is in his head.
The only reason you start Homer Bailey in game 1 or 2 is if you think he gives you the best chance of winning game 1 or 2. That's not the case. The Reds have two starters that are significantly better than their other 3. You absolutely want those 2 guys going in the first two games to assure that you don't come back to Cincinnati down 0-2.
But let me make the case for a 3 man rotation in a 5-game series.
Imagine it's game 4. Either the Reds would be down 2-1 or up 2-1. Who would you rather have for those games? Cueto and Latos, albeit a bit tired? or our second/third tier starters?
This of course will all be moot if the Reds slip to the #3 seed.
I doubt that the Reds suddenly start asking Cueto and Latos to pitch on 3 days rest. Th epalyoff history on pitchers doing that in the last 10-15 years is not kind.
Having said that, the thought that Homer can't pitch at home is likely a small sample size one, as it's the first year it has occured. And, as you say, his September starts at home have been fine.
In any event, the Reds will go with the following order: