Originally Posted by Brutus
You'd still be better served to play the percentages. You only get one shot, but wouldn't you want that one shot to be the one that gives you the best chance?
Bailey might not be a better option than Cueto on the road, but Cueto is definitely a better option than Bailey in Cincinnati. That's incentive enough right there to make the change IMHO.
Personally, I'd rather Leake pitch than Bailey if a fourth starter in Cincinnati is going to be used, as it appears it will be. But the best option for the Reds is utilizing Bailey in San Francisco in my most honest opinion, as I think it increases the chances of production out of the fourth spot.
When I'm playing poker, I play the percentages, except when there's a huge pot worth more than what I coud win a weeks worth of play, or I'm playing a deciding hand in a tournament. In those case, the stats mean nothing. I have to go with what I think will win that hand, right then, not what will win it 51 times out of hundred instead of 49 times out of hundred.